Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $860,964$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{734,816.6}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 128.9)}}\) (asimptote \(734,816.6\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $23,276$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,010.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 135.0)}}\) (asimptote \(21,010.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $76,677$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $111,361$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119,242.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 233.9)}}\) (asimptote \(119,242.7\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,894$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,726$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,357$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,991.4}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 204.7)}}\) (asimptote \(13,991.4\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $110$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{131.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 191.5)}}\) (asimptote \(131.7\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $285$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $90,779$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,878.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 204.1)}}\) (asimptote \(99,878.6\))
Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,299$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,457.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 200.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,457.8\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,585$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $399,609$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{661,465.5}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 253.9)}}\) (asimptote \(661,465.5\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,624$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,997.1}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 249.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10,997.1\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $36,962$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $121,575$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107,173.4}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 100.3)}}\) (asimptote \(107,173.4\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,920$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,313.0}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 107.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,313.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,780$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $14,461$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,588.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 100.1)}}\) (asimptote \(11,588.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $352$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{322.2}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 110.4)}}\) (asimptote \(322.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,644$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,536$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,093.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 166.6)}}\) (asimptote \(14,093.0\))
Start date 2020-07-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $160$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{141.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 53.6)}}\) (asimptote \(141.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,692$ on 2020-12-13