Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Tunisia
  • Cabo Verde
  • Libya
  • Morocco
  • Egypt
  • Congo (Kinshasa)
  • Namibia
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Chad
  • Ethiopia

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $860,964$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{734,816.6}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 128.9)}}\) (asimptote \(734,816.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $23,276$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,010.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 135.0)}}\) (asimptote \(21,010.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $76,677$ on 2020-12-13

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $111,361$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119,242.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 233.9)}}\) (asimptote \(119,242.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,894$ on 2020-12-13

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,726$ on 2020-12-13

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,357$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,991.4}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 204.7)}}\) (asimptote \(13,991.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{131.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 191.5)}}\) (asimptote \(131.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $285$ on 2020-12-13

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $90,779$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,878.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 204.1)}}\) (asimptote \(99,878.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,299$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,457.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 200.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,457.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,585$ on 2020-12-13

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $399,609$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{661,465.5}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 253.9)}}\) (asimptote \(661,465.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,624$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,997.1}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 249.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10,997.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36,962$ on 2020-12-13

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $121,575$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107,173.4}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 100.3)}}\) (asimptote \(107,173.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,920$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,313.0}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 107.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,313.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,780$ on 2020-12-13

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,461$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,588.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 100.1)}}\) (asimptote \(11,588.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $352$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{322.2}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 110.4)}}\) (asimptote \(322.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,644$ on 2020-12-13

Namibia⮸

Population $2,540,905$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,536$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,093.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 166.6)}}\) (asimptote \(14,093.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-07-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $160$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{141.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 53.6)}}\) (asimptote \(141.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,692$ on 2020-12-13

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Chad recovered 85%
Ethiopia recovered 54%
Morocco recovered 26%

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,770$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,055.1}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 129.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,055.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $102$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95.1}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 23.1)}}\) (asimptote \(95.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-12-13

Ethiopia⮸

Population $114,963,588$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $116,769$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{111,752.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 140.8)}}\) (asimptote \(111,752.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-06-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,806$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,722.1}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 99.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,722.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-05-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,073$ on 2020-12-13